The Accelerating Evolution of Artificial Intelligence
And a Shrinking Timeline to Radical Change
The evolution of AI is progressing aking an exponential growth curve. In mid 2024, former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever formed Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI), receiving a $1B investment that valued SSI at a reported $5B. The purpose of SSI is to research and develop Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). If successful, SSI has the potential to significantly accelerate the evolutionary timeframe for achieving ASI and beyond.
As AI proceeds through multiple stages of evolutionary growth, its capabilities and impacts are likely to continue increasing exponentially. In the chart below, no specific dates are shown on the horizontal time scale as AI progress timeframes are difficult to project due to:
The wide range of expert opinions, which can vary by many years to decades.
Very rapid recent developments in AI models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and AI services such as ChatGPT.com, Meta.ai, and Perplexity.ai.
Although the AI evolutionary time scale is challenging to predict exactly, if SSI and other AI development efforts are successful, the time from current Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) could be reduced from decades to years.
For more details, please see my recent post on The Science of Machine Learning website.